The world is now at risk of a second wave of coronavirus outbreaks. Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor-in-chief of The Economist, and Slavea Chankova, our health correspondent, answer 9 different questions about Covid and the 2nd wave.
In what ways will the second wave be different to the first wave?
So, experts think that the second ways will be less universal and more isolates outbreaks. Its focused on people and places that are vulnerable. The outbreaks may be easier to contain, especially in places that have good tracing and testing systems so they can quickly catch them. But they also say that we can´t forget that some countries haven’t yet finished the first wave. Although the second wave could be more controlled.
Assuming a second wave happens, what is the likelihood that people will comply with another lockdown?
You can see that people have been tired of lockdowns and they´re not really follow the rules. The government has therefore a difficult task to convince them to comply with any further restrictions that may be needed. It depends on cultures, some places are more compliant than others. Also the government try and put in a wholesale lockdown because they will have seen the economic consequences in the economic costs of that. They will be more targeted with any lockdowns.
Can we expect further waves until we reach herd immunity?
Nobody knew six months about the disease. But the world scientists are working incredibly hard to find the vaccine until then we are going to keep seeing it recurring. There will be probably second waves and it’s the government responsibility to watch out for these waves and to do what it takes to prevent them. But the citizens must comply with requests to stay home if you´re been exposed to someone known to be infected that will be crucial to containing the second wave.
How can the world collaborate to stop the spread of covid-19?
There already is a degree of collaboration on the science side. Hundreds of hospitals around the world are gathering data in real-time on what works best to treat patients who are very sick with COVID- 19. There is also some collaboration on the vaccine development side in several countries working together. Unfortunately there is a little multilateralism that´s beyond. It´s important to know how a country is going to be able to coordinate for example travel safe.
What impact is covid-19 having on elections in the democratic world?
We certainly would be authoritarians have taken advantage of COVID-19 for example in Hungary. But also in other countries you haven’t all that democratic governments kind of authoritarian regimes have been using this to clamp down tamp, down to press freedom, using much greater ability to survey. People are with the excuse that you need to do that for controlling the disease. In democracies the real and huge question is how elections are going to be run.
What happens if another virus comes up before we find a vaccine for covid-19?
We are in trouble, we already seeing about the virus which is quite deadly bite by the standards of the flu and viruses. We have circulating but it is possible that the new one comes up at any time and it could be deadlier it may spread more easily so it´s upon the world to learn the lesson from COVID-19 very quickly and do what it takes to prevent another one from emerging and spreading.
Will the stockmarket decline again with the second wave?
What is striking right now is the extraordinary bounce back we´ve particularly in the US stock markets and the dissonance between that and the sort of degree to which the economy has been harmed own stock markets are clearly forward looking. They´re anticipating more stimulus and they are anticipating a very rapid recovery. It´s going to be a recovery but not where we were before the new normal if you will is going to be a diminished economy. An economy that needs a lot of restructuring as some sectors whether it´s tourism or hospitality. They are less strong than they were and longer to come back and others you know.
What do you think are the positive effects of the pandemic?
So one positive thing that I think will come out of thus when it´s all done and dusted is create there flexibility in how people work and that in turn will lead to a a lot more work life balance heavier on the life side. For those people who can work from home service sector workers. Creative workers that work that that can be done from home but there are many jobs that cannot be done from home and this is going to in many ways to increase the inequality of the labour market between those people and often that´s low-skilled jobs where you have to be at your job and people who can do their job from home and it´s quite possibly going to be a lot harder for entrance into the workforce.
Can countries afford another long-term lockdown?
No, we have learnt that there are huge economic costs that come from complete lockdowns and in general those are costs that are even harder to bear for less developed countries. If you are an advanced economy it´s possible to do the huge amount of support. Monetary support is needed. It´s much harder if you´re an emerging economy both because social distancing is harder and there isn´t as easy to for the government to provide the scale of support that´s needed.